Hugh McFadyen's Progressive Conservatives have jumped ahead of the governing New Democrats and are virtually even with the NDP in vote-rich Winnipeg, according to an Angus Reid poll.
Forty-eight per cent of decided voters would vote Tory if a provincial election were held now. That represents a four per cent gain from Angus Reid's last survey in February.
Premier Greg Selinger's NDP is in second place with support of 36 per cent of decided voters (down one per cent from February). The Liberals are in third place with 13 per cent and the Green party has three per cent support. Both of those numbers are unchanged from February.
In Winnipeg, an NDP stronghold, the two top parties are now almost neck-and-neck, the poll said.
The NDP has the support 42 per cent of decided voters while the Tories have 41 per cent. The Liberals have support of 13 per cent of decided voters -- unchanged since Angus Reid's last poll -- with the Green party at four per cent.
Neither the NDP nor the Tories wanted to discuss the poll on Thursday, although most politicians and support staff from both parties had seen it.
Angus Reid research director Hamish Marshall said the numbers reflect a more competitive arena in Manitoba politics since former premier Gary Doer left to become ambassador to the U.S.
"The numbers are certainly showing that since Doer's departure, the PCs are on the rise, while the NDP is dropping back," Marshall said.
"In the post-Doer era, Manitoba politics is a lot more competitive."
The Tories are reclaiming issues traditionally in the centre-right, such as crime and the economy, Marshall said.
"Things are reverting to a more traditional pattern where the Conservatives are doing better than Selinger and the NDP on those same issues," Marshall said.
Outside the Perimeter Highway, the PCs continue their dominance over the NDP with the support of 58 per cent of decided voters compared to the NDP's 28 per cent. The Liberals have 11 per cent and the Green party three per cent. In keeping with last February's results, the Conservatives hold an 18-point lead over the NDP among men (52 per cent to 34 per cent) and a six-point lead among women (44 per cent to 38 per cent). The Liberals continue to do better among women (15 per cent) than men (nine per cent).
Political insiders pay attention to Angus Reid polls but they consider their polling, which is done by local firms, to be more accurate.
Last March, a Probe Research/Winnipeg Free Press poll also found the gap in popular support between the NDP and Tories had narrowed, but not as much as what Angus Reid found.
Probe Research found 42 per cent supported the NDP. That was down from 47 per cent in Probe's December poll. The Tories had 39 per cent support while support for the Liberals was neutral at 11 per cent.
Probe is currently conducting its own polling and will release its findings shortly.
-- with files from Matt Preprost
bruce.owen@freepress.mb.ca
